Keeping Perspective

Yesterday was the AFC Championship and your’s truly is a big fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I won’t get into the details of the game because that would become a post of it’s own and the loss is still raw. Luckily work has been a welcomed distraction today and I’ve had a great, productive day.

It’s been a somber day for Jaguars fans, no doubt. Still, it was a season to remember for a franchise that’s had a rough 10 years. While I believe they should be in the Super Bowl, sometimes things just don’t work out as you’d like them. Such is life.

What’s funny is how much a sports game can impact your emotions. In the grand scheme of things, the game means very little. But sports have an incredible way of bringing people together. I was lucky enough to watch the game with a great group of people and had a Sunday afternoon I won’t soon forget. While the loss sucks, it’s helpful to keep that perspective.

Also — watch out for the Jaguars next year. They’ll be back 😏.

The NFL Playoffs

From time to time I’ll write about sports in here, especially when it’s top-of-mind like it is today.

The NFL Playoffs are an awesome time of year. While the series format (e.g. NBA) has merit, the “win or go home” nature of the NFL Playoffs raises the stakes. It makes each game that much more important.

Today my team, the Jacksonville Jaguars (I was born in JAX) are in the playoffs for the first time since 2007. They’re hosting a playoff game in Jacksonville for the first time since 1999. Needless to say… I’m excited.

Your Startup Must Be Steph Curry

Startups are fucking hard.

But let’s come back to that.

The oft-quoted stat is that 90% of them fail.

Let’s humanize that a bit.

Imagine that you’re playing somebody 1-on-1 in basketball. First to 10 wins.

And the other team starts with 9… and the ball.

That’s really hard.

First you need to get the ball. Then proceed to score 10 straight times before they do once.

You have to be nearly perfect — if there is such a thing.

Even if you’re talented and playing great, there’s still the off chance that the other team just throws one up. It bounces the wrong way… and goes in.

You lose.

But what if I told you, in this game of 1-on-1, the person with 9 points is a high schooler. And the one with zero is Steph Curry.

Steph is still vulnerable to that high schooler’s one lucky shot. But the odds no longer seem so crazy. In fact, you might assume that Steph will win.

And, as a startup, that’s what you have to be.

You need to be Steph Curry.

You need to have that competitive advantage. You need to be that good. In your product and in your team.

You need to exceptionally talented at your craft, yet still hustle your ass off to become even better.

Because you understand that at any moment, if you let your guard down, you could lose.

And you might say,

“Well obviously not everyone can be Steph Curry.

That’s fucking hard.”

Right.

If NFL Teams Were Tech Companies

Every year Forbes releases the value of every NFL team. It’s an annual reminder that these are massive organizations that turn huge profits.

But we never really think of them as companies. Their valuations don’t correlate with their win-loss records, or even the “product” they’re about to put out. In fact, many of the richest teams have been awful in recent seasons. Instead, it is past success and sheer volume of fans that leads to ticket/merchandise sales, TV deals, and corporate sponsorships.

Strange as it sounds, that’s how the NFL (and all sports for that matter) operates. But what if the NFL operated like other companies? Particularly those in the fast-paced tech industry.

Well, here’s what it would be like if NFL teams were tech companies…

NFC West

It's nice at the top.

Seattle Seahawks = Facebook
You have to start with the champs. These guys are winning and everyone is wondering if they can take that next step: dynasty. Both organizations have strong, likable leadership and, despite bumps in the road, find themselves on top. Facebook’s stock hits a new high every day and the young Hawks are poised for another deep playoff run.

San Francisco 49ers = Twitter
At this point we can see they are a force to be reckoned with. They’ve validated their concept and figured out their quarterback situation (Kaepernick vs Smith & Costolo vs Williams/Dorsey). Now everyone wants to see them prove they can win in the postseason and post-IPO.

Arizona Cardinals = eBay
The Cards had a quiet 10 wins last year, but suffered from being in the league’s best division. eBay, similarly, is in a much better position today than two years prior. They haven’t been noisy in the process but watch out for them moving forward.

St. Louis Rams = Yelp
You have to feel for the Rams. It’s not that things are necessarily “bad”, but how can you expect Sam Bradford (now his third-string backup) to win this division? The Rams are the pigskin version of Yelp because they canrecommend good football… they just can’t play it.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys = Microsoft
Dominant in the 90s, this team has struggled to find any sort of success in the modern era. The Cowboys are still the league’s most valuable team, just as Microsoft still has a ton of money. Maybe this is the year things turn in the right direction…

New York Giants = IBM
On the contrary, “Big Blue” isn’t living in the past. They’ve found consistent success through the years, but still need to find ways to remain relevant in their ever-changing environment. Even IBM Watson knows Eli needs to stop throwing picks.

Washington Redskins = Yahoo!
Here’s another group that still boasts its past success, but has at least brought in new leadership attempting to regain their old form. It all sounds good, but results have been up and [mostly] down thus far.

Philadelphia Eagles = BuzzFeed
They’re flashy and fun to watch… but is there any real substance there? The Chip Kelly and Jonah Peretti models have both proven to be disruptive, but they also make way for serious questions regarding sustainability. Time will tell.

NFC North

The Pack own the North like Google owns search.

Green Bay Packers = Google
Dominant since their inception, it’s no surprise we continue to see them as a top player. They’ve always had the best solution for the key position (QB/search) and this will keep them contending for years to come.

Chicago Bears = Dropbox
Everything looks good and seems to work… but can they take that next step? For Chicago it’s overcoming defensive struggles to return to the playoffs and for Dropbox it’s becoming a public company. The pieces are in place for both to happen — it’s a matter of timing at this point.
Side note: How is it that the Bears’ head coach looks nerdier than the CEO of a file-sharing company? Just sayin…

Detroit Lions = YouTube
They have awesome stuff and are fun to watch. But there’s also a lot of ugly stuff to watch. Can they ever supersede their parent (Packers/Google)? I’m not sure. But I am sure I’m getting more 30 second ads and less “Skip in 5 seconds” on YouTube, which isn’t cool. #SaveSkipIn5

Minnesota Vikings = Quora
You like what they’re doing and you’re interested to see where it goes, but in the end… you’re left with just questions. Realistically it’ll be a few years until they contend, but the talent and building blocks are in place.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers = Airbnb
The hype machine is real. Wildly successful in the past year, it seems the sky is the limit for them. That doesn’t mean there won’t be roadblocks — read: the WR position for the Panthers and NYC legal battles for Airbnb.

New Orleans Saints = Amazon
An offensive juggernaut, their arsenal of weapons makes them very tough for any opponent to to stop. They’re aggressive and can back it up. If their defense shows up on Sundays, they’ll continue to be a perennial monster.

Atlanta Falcons = Groupon
These guys came storming out of the gates. Groupon was a hit right after launch and the Falcons won 56 games in the first 5 years of the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith regime. But both hit rock bottom last year: Atlanta went 4–12 and Groupon is trading at $6 after ousting their CEO.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers = Dell
Recent history hasn’t been kind to this pair. Struggling against stronger competition, both are hoping a return to roots can help right the ship. Lovie Smith was hired as the head coach in Tampa, the place he began his NFL coaching career. And Michael Dell took back his company with a $25B leveraged buyout.

AFC West

Denver Broncos = Netflix
The hot and trendy pick, these guys have loaded up again for 2014. There is a lot to like about their leadership and the model they’ve put in place. The Netflix stock is at an all-time high and the Broncos look even better than last year’s record-breaking team. Orange is the new Black.

San Diego Chargers = Snapchat
They’re cool, flashy, and a bit cocky. Despite a very competitive space (AFC West & social networking), these guys have found a spot. San Diego snuck in and won a playoff game last year. Snapchat turned down huge buyout offersto create their own destiny. Now they’re trying to show they can hang with the big boys.

Kansas City Chiefs = Uber
Talk about rising from nothing to something. Uber was an overnight success, while the Chiefs went from being the league’s worst team to starting 9–0 under Andy Reid, who looks like he might be an Uber driver. The question for both groups is — are they overvalued or can they sustain their early success?

Oakland Raiders = Pandora
What to make of these guys? The concept is intriguing — no doubt. It’s based on all these old things we are familiar with. And each individual piece has merit… But, with nothing excitingly new, it seems I continue to hit “Next”.

AFC East

New England Patriots = Apple
Love them or hate them, they’re a classy organization that always puts forth a great product. People like to question “if they still have it”, but year-in and year-out they prove they do. 2014 should be no different.

New York Jets = Beats
Although they’re not the best on the market, they’re certainly talked about the most. With a lot of name recognition and a solid product, it’s easy to see why people can get excited. But when it really comes down to it… they’re still owned by (Big) Apple.

Miami Dolphins = Shazam
Where do they go from here? I’m not sure anyone has that answer. Both recently made a change in leadership, but questions remain as to how they can grow. The Fins are most like Shazam though, because I hear a lot of noise — I just can’t make sense of it.

Buffalo Bills = Samsung
All of the individual pieces look really shiny and nice, but they can never seem to beat Apple. iPhone still owns over 41% of the smartphone market [as of March], with Samsung trailing at 27%. And the Bills are 2–25 against the Pats in the last 10 years. “The Next Big Thing” just isn’t that big yet.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens = HBO
With a strong history, nobody is questioning these guys have what it takes to be successful in the future. But a changing landscape is forcing them to adapt. HBO needs to become more technology-driven, while the Ravens must be able to hang in an offensively-focused NFL (see: Netflix/Broncos).

Pittsburgh Steelers = Linkedin
Here you have a solid foundation that has been built over the years with great vision and leadership. Linkedin has been a force since they started and the Steelers haven’t had a losing season in the Big Ben era — going on 10 years. That’s the kind of sustained success you want in an organization.

Cincinnati Bengals = WhatsApp
There is no denying how well their model has worked in recent years. WhatsApp has grown at a ridiculous pace, while the Bengals have made the playoffs every year since drafting Andy Dalton. But — was it worth ALL THAT MONEY?! Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $19B and Cincy handed Dalton a $115M deal… #smh

Cleveland Browns = Tinder
This one is simple. The Browns keep swiping left on quarterbacks. By my count they’ve had 20 different starters in 15 years. Not ideal. That coupled with the Johnny Football circus makes for a messy situation. Coincidentally, like Manziel, Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden were both selected 22nd overall by Cleveland. Maybe third time’s the charm…

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars = Instagram
With Gus Bradley as head coach, the Jags are trying to be the Seahawks of the east. While Seattle (Facebook) is clearly the big brother here — they’refeeding talent to their sibling. However, it will take Blake Bortles developing like Russell Wilson to truly complete the transformation.

Indianapolis Colts = Oracle
It seems they’ve been around forever, and are always in the mix; winning one here and there. They grow by acquisition — some don’t turn out well (Trent Richardson), others make them relevant all over again (Andrew Luck). Don’t expect them to go away any time soon.

Tennessee Titans = Sony
When you look at this group, you can’t argue that there are some nice pieces in place. But what does their future look like? Interestingly, Sony’s stock was at an all-time high when the Titans were in the Super Bowl (1999–2000). It’s been steadily downhill for both groups ever since.

Houston Texans = Square
Expectations were high last year, but the results were disappointing. Things looked great on paper but Houston won just two games, while Square lost $100M. It’s tough to pinpoint a single reason on either side, but needless to say, each organization is looking to reinvent themselves.

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Fortunately: football teams are not like tech companies.

We don’t treat tech companies like that. Unless it’s Apple.

It’s our insane passion and loyalty towards our favorite teams that leads us to tune in, buy jerseys, and read stories like this…

And that’s exactly how it should be.

All illustrations by John Martz